Apocalypse Clock

Interactive global systemic-risk model · Model 1.5.0 · Dataset 1.9.0

This clock has not yet been scientifically validated. The two clocks show P50 and P90 from the same simulated first-threshold-crossing distribution under the selected scenario and assumptions. They are conditional model outputs, not forecasts of complete global collapse or extinction.

Full Methodology · Scoring Methodology · Legal & Privacy

About Apocalypse Clock & frequently asked questions

Apocalypse Clock is an independent interactive model for exploring 23 connected global threats. Compare scenarios, trace dependencies, and inspect the assumptions behind the results. The displayed years are conditional model outputs, not validated forecasts.

What is Apocalypse Clock?

Apocalypse Clock is an interactive model of 23 global threats across civilizational, biospheric and technological systems. It explores how these threats may interact and how different assumptions affect simulated disruption timelines.

Do the displayed years predict when the world will end?

No. The displayed years indicate when a model-defined functional-disruption threshold is reached in simulated scenarios. They do not predict humanity’s extinction or the date of completed global collapse.

Global systemic risks involve deep uncertainty about causal relationships, interactions between threats, and future technological, political and societal developments. This uncertainty does not prevent modelling, but it limits the precision and reliability of long-term forecasts. Scientific findings can inform approximate, conditional estimates of threshold crossing within a specified model. Such estimates describe what follows from the selected inputs and assumptions; they are not independently validated timelines for real-world events.

The outputs depend on the research-informed inputs documented in the JSON dataset and on the model’s structure and assumptions. The dataset has undergone iterative development and refinement, supported by AI-assisted technical and methodological reviews across successive generations of AI systems. These reviews do not constitute independent empirical validation or establish predictive accuracy. Apocalypse Clock should therefore be understood as an exploratory tool for examining interconnected risks and comparing scenarios, rather than as a forecast of when the world will end.

What do P50 and P90 mean?

P50 is the median simulated first-threshold-crossing year. P90 is the 90th percentile of the same distribution. They describe the spread of model outcomes, not two independent predictions. The percentages shown alongside them describe simulated runs, not measured real-world probabilities of collapse.

What does “>2100” mean?

It means that the relevant crossing year or percentile cannot be identified within the model’s time window, which ends in 2100. It does not mean that the system is safe until then, or that disruption is certain to occur afterward.

Has Apocalypse Clock been scientifically validated?

Not yet. Its calculations can be inspected and reproduced, but that does not establish their ability to predict real-world outcomes. Computational diagnostics and AI-assisted technical reviews are not substitutes for independent empirical validation.

Where do the inputs come from, and can I inspect them?

The inputs combine cited research and institutional reports with explicit model assumptions and judgments. Some parameters are estimates rather than direct measurements. The individual threat pages, Source Registry and Methodology explain their basis. The code and dataset are available for inspection in the GitHub repository .

Can I rerun the model or change its assumptions?

Yes. The initial view loads a saved baseline simulation to avoid repeating a lengthy calculation on every visit. You can use the Live Calculation Console to change supported inputs and run a new calculation. Reproducibility requires the same model version, dataset, settings, simulation count and random seed.

How is Apocalypse Clock different from the Doomsday Clock?

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday Clock communicates an expert assessment through a symbolic time to midnight. Apocalypse Clock is a separate computational project that explores conditional scenarios and threat dependencies. It is not affiliated with the Bulletin. Neither clock is a literal countdown to the end of the world.

Read the comparison of Apocalypse Clock and the Doomsday Clock or the Bulletin’s explanation .